Archive for June, 2007

PE gives Bears a headache

Businessweek has an interesting piece on how PE and turnaround funds are making life difficult for short-sellers:

But as short-selling has proliferated, it has become increasingly difficult to make money at the game. Whereas a profit-challenged enterprise may once have floundered until shutting down or filing for bankruptcy, many such companies are now targets for private equity firms that style themselves as turnaround artists (see BusinessWeek.com, 10/8/06, “Private Equity Keeps Booming”). What’s more, such firms are often willing to pay a rich premium to the market price for troubled outfits in which they see promise.

As a result, fewer companies work as successful short plays, and the strategy has soured for many. The sector is down 7.56% for the year, according to Ken Heinz, president of Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research. “We are hearing from hedge fund managers that it’s getting harder and harder to make money on the short side,” says Robert Discolo, head of hedge fund strategies at AIG Global Investment Group.

IT Services & BPO Connect - Bangalore, July 12

Hi,

Have IT Services and BPO become a big boys only game? Can SMEs survive and thrive in these sectors? What are the new opportunities in IT Services? Can KPOs ever IPO?

My company, Venture Intelligence, is organizing a conference where successful entrepreneurs, top industry executives and investors will explore these questions in interactive panel discussions.

We have landed quite a few exciting speakers at the event, including:

Sashi Reddi, AppLabs
Deepak Kamra & Alok Mittal, Canaan Partners
Sunil Wadhwani, iGate Corp.
Ravi Pandit, KPIT Cummins
N.Krishnakumar, MindTree
Pradeep Kar, Microland
Venkatesh Roddam, Nipuna Services
Siraj Dhanani, PharmARC
Rajiv Mody, Sasken
Chandu Nair, Scope eKnowledge
K. Ganesh, TutorVista.com
Hiren Kulkarni, Zensar

The idea is to have these speakers - and other experts that we are lining up - provide start-up entrepreneurs with tips and tools to navigate the murky waters in these rapidly maturing and consolidating sectors.

For more information about the event, please visit http://ventureintelligence.in/ev120707.htm

I look forward to meeting some of the VentureWoods members at IB Connect.

Cheers

Startups, Advertising and Brand Building

Advertising, Brand building and sales.

Exactly! This is what every start up would think in terms of progress that could happen through advertising.

So whatz aim of advertising. Is it aimed to build brands or bringing customers or for just making a feeler in the industry? Tough question to answer. If you ask advertising pundits, they would say that advertising helps to build brands. They would say that advertising could be helpful to build intangible asset in the mind of public.

Biggest problem for us is that we dont have any tool to measure whether it hold true to their given commitment. As we know start ups dont spend much money on advertising. If any startup does have an idea to do so, Id say its sheer waste of money.

It would be surprising to hear this word from a person who has worked for an advertising agency. But truth is a truth. Lets see why its not wise for startups to go for advertising.

Advertising is costly one: Advertising is always costly. Its immeasurable. We dont know whatz return for a particular advertisement. Just single or couple of insertions wont be enough for a start up. It has to be done constantly and obviously it could incur huge costs. Advertising wont suit budget of small start ups.

Advertising lacks credibility: Being a start up none of your customers would know you. Moreover by just giving multiple insertions in a top notch journal couldnt convince your prospects about your products.

Advertising creates competition: Biggest problem of advertising is that youd get noticed by your prospective competitor. This is not good for start ups. History says that successful companies are averse to get noticed by competitors. Google is great example of how it was averse to get noticed by competition. They kept their biz secret till they get listed in the stock exchange.

Having said these, I wont say that there is no need for advertising. Advertising could definitely be helpful to increase sales, provided it should be done properly. Advertising should focus on changing behaviour rather than changing attitude of your customers.

Once start ups grow there might be possibility for them to advertise their products. It might become imminent for them to choose advertising. They should try to advertise to focus group rather than working on generic advertising like changing attitudes of customers. By focus group I mean target customers.

Advertising Behavioural aspects holds the key

Changing Attitude vs Changing Behaviour

If your assignment is to change minds dont accept that assignment Jack Trout, Marketing Guru

Its simple common sense that its impossible for us to change basic attitude of a person. You cant ask a politician to be clean in his job. Its almost impossible. But make no mistake most of the advertising gurus are trying to do that and are wasting tons of money in that process. Unfortunately theyre not isolated guys, their consulting counterparts are advocating it and theyre almost complimenting each other.

Its well known that when were almost 14 years of age everything gets finished. We use to have judgment for everything from education, food, interacting with people, making friends and from a to z. Most of the behavioural scientists seem to accept this. We believe what we believe inside within us. We have some conclusions and we work accordingly. But suddenly if someone asks us to change this its not possible for us to accept them.

But believe me advertising people are not willing to accept this notion. They believe that attitudes could be changed. Indians like cricket, even though its not their national game. Now if you ask a kid on question about national game, youd be surprised to hear cricket from its answer. Thats the perception. Its been created and its quite tough to change that perception.

But advertising people could try to make people to know about new and unique issue about their products. They should try to focus on uniqueness of their products and they could ask the prospects to try them. This has been said by dozens of marketing gurus decades before me and it could possibly be said by marketing gurus decades after this. But its impossible to change ones attitude. You cant change attitude of advertising people. Theyd always try to achieve impossible. Theres thrill in achieving impossible.

Now coming to the point of attitude vs behaviour, Id try to make it simple for your understanding. Im regular reader of business books. If any advertiser would like to advertise business books, they just cant make me to get impressed by giving statistics of the book. May be just may be I could get impressed on knowing name of the author. Thats definitely one criterion. Other than that, nothing is there. If its well known author like C.K. Prahalad, Jack Trout everyone would pick that book. There is no need to advertise too much. If its not known author, what could be the gimmick to attract me.

Uniqueness about the subject could play crucial role for me to learn more about that book. May be new technology, new biz opportunity, may be writing about impossible achievement (Black swan), and others. This could be helpful for me to change my behaviour. Yeah, this is what Im saying about changing behaviour. Everyone would love to learn new things viz., new opportunity, new technologies and others. This is about behaviour. My attitude remains same, but my behaviour might get changed to the given situation. Advertisers must try to change the behaviours of prospects than changing their basic attitude.

Id give another example on changing behaviour. This is well known example.
Avis is No.2 in rent-a-cars. We try harder. This is classical example for behavioural advertising. Its simple logic that people always like winners. But still they love underdogs.

Your favourite team in cricket might be Australia. But still you love India, because its own country, plus theyre behaving as if theyre trying harder. Basic attitude of Indian team remains same, not winning big matches and winning on important occasion, but they tried to improve their status by creating world record (4 Centuries by top 4 batsmen) against Bangladesh and possibly with other minnows.

Building Brands

So whatz the aim of advertising? Quick answer Building Brands. How much of truth in it, remains a question. It seems to be ready made answer for any advertising practitioner across the world. We need to ask it to ourselves. Is it possible for us to measure this assertion? Its really tough to come up with answer.

But were constantly proclaiming that Advertising Build Brands. If this is true, how its possible for Google, Linux, Microsoft, I-Pod to build brands. Any kid would say that these brands are build by word of mouth than advertising. So why advertising people are often behaving like Confident Bluffers than working truly towards their goal of acting as an insurance for brands. Advertising wont build brands, but it acts as insurance for brands.

Brands could be built by public relations than so called advertising. But dont misunderstand that advertising is not needed for a brand. Advertising is important for a brand, but it is not a tool to build a brand.

Advertising should be used as insurance for your brand. You must know how to use advertising. You shouldnt use advertising as a strategy. Its not a strategy. Ofcourse advertising in one or other way might become necessity, but its not a tool to build your brands.

Why advertising couldnt build your brands. Lets say for example, youre coming with hottest technology in online space. Say youre spending 100k in front page of a magazine. Do you believe that prospects would use your killer app just by seeing your advertising? Ask yourself, would you try others product by just seeing their advertising in front page. Its not possible. You would love to read reviews of the product, you could probably ask for reference, you could love to get a demo and other writings in the press. Then how its reasonable for you to believe that your prospects would love the product by just seeing your front page advertisements.

To conclude, Id say that advertising should be used properly like your martial skills. Advertising is a precious tool, so you should use it at right time that shouldnt bring chaos for your finance department. Because Advertising is precious, its costly. Act accordingly!

Nishith Desai on Tax, Law and Strategy in India

Nishith Desai is an international lawyer and tax consultant and I recently caught up with him to find out about tax, law and strategy in India. This is a two-part interview. In Part-1 he talks about his entertainment law practice (clients include Amitabh Bachchan, Disney, Shekar Kapoor and others) and about Venture Capital in India. Specifically, he talks about the Mauritius route that many Venture Capital firms have used to do business in India.

In Part-2 we talk about venture capital and the various mechanisms and structures through which capital comes into India. What are the challenges of bringing capital into India? What are the various pass-through mechanisms that are available? Nishith set up one of the first trust-based pass-through mechanisms in India between AIG and IF&FS. What does he think of the 2007 budget and Finance Minister Chidambaram’s provisions for VC and investment and pass-through mechanisms in India? We also asked Nishith if there is a bubble in India you’ll have to tune in to find out what Nishith thinks about that.

Attracting Vanity Users for a Social Network

I am a regular user of Social network like FaceBook,Orkut, LinkedIn.

Collaborative Knowledge Sharing Networks Like Wikipedia , WikiQuote,Del.icio.us

Q&A forums like USENET ,Linkedin Answer ,Yahoo Answers .

Media centric communities like Flickr,Slideshare,Youtube

I have noticed that most of the time some specific member of network are more Vocal , enthusiast and involved than others. these user keep the conversation alive . a study says 20 % of Linked In users are answering 80% of Q . Yahoo Answer have similar pattern .

In old product/ technology centric paradigm we often call them power user or early adopters . There is no immediate material /objective gain form Answering someone’s Q or solving a problem on someone’s behalf . still people do it .
someone told me that “It’s not Just Altruism which promotes these guys to do so . another factor is that it satisfy their Vanity “. he even suggested that whole notion of option source is driven more by Vanity than by altruism . [i neither agree nor disagree with him , i never thought of Open source n Free software in that way ,however thats besides the point ]

I think that these Vanity users are Key to any social networks adaptation and growth . Who are these guys who write wikipedia articles ? i know only one such guy . My question is How can a upcoming startup ensure that it gets attention of Vanity users ? what appeals to them ? how can you attract and [more importantly] retain them .

can it be done by

Design ? ie: Having specific feature which uplift user’s social presence [ Linked in Recommendation,Fave count in slideshare , Testimonial in orkut, flickr ]

By reward ? : some incentive ie Cool Quotient index or Giving Visibility ,Profile of the day ,most read profile , max number of connection ,Hot count in Hot or not , Feedback grade in E Bay )

By some grading system ? (FANs in Orkut and Domain Expert status in LinkedIn, Crush Count in Facebook ,Technorati Rating )

whats your thoughts on this

Strategic Investors - When and how

With the flurry of venture money pouring into India, the other class of investors that are equally upbeat is strategic investors and corporates. I have met a few entrepreneurs who have received “investment offers” from these investors, and especially in absence of any pure financial offers, the option seems compelling — “they will put in the money, and then also help me build a business!”. Few things to consider before you take that offer:

- If the corporate investors are going to add significant value to the company, its good to quantify that value and test waters before you jump. Work on a few customers jointly and see if this partnership is working, and intended benefits are being achieved. If it is, the partnership can translate into a strategic investment.
- Objectives of strategic investors vary. Some like to invest in businesses that improve overall demand of their products and services - and they are ok taking minority stakes. Having a minority strategic investor with an operational partnership is also a good potential exit route. Others look at immediate consolidation, i.e. majority stake. While there might be promise of buying rest of the shares at a later point at a higher valuation, remember that you will never get the best value through this route.
- Sometimes, strategic investors will impose conditions on future rounds of financings, or have a first right of refusal on exit, and such other terms. While some of these sound benign because they are apparantly on the same valuation that anyone else is paying, remember that if an investor knows that their offer can be taken to another party which has right of first refusal, this investor is probably not too keen to make an offer anyway. So be careful of such terms, and how the exact process will work so as to not deter other potential investors.

In summary, if you are landing up selling the company today (for whatever value), you should know that is the case!

eLearning for all

Create an eLearning system where ANYONE can learn the way they want to learn. For example, if I am comfortable learning with the help of a person, I click on a subject and poof! appears a window with a live person web-camming with you. It is an interactive session on-demand, when you need it, in the language of your choice.

Or, imagine that I am reading a book and need some clarification on a concept. I go to the website and either chat or have an audio or video call with the person who can help. I will be able to search for the availability of such a person on the site. When I search, I can specify the topic, language etc. so that the search will throw up the available persons. I could even look for people who have read the book or professors and teachers who teach using that book.

I can of course learn about these topics on the self learning module and at any time of the learning ask a live person for clarifications, as if I am one-on-one with a private tutor who is available 24×7.

While reading an article on the system, I might get tired and just want to hear the rest of the stuff. Can I do it? Yes of course. I just click the point till which I have read and an audio starts from that point.

The system is a also a wiki; so whenever people learn about new concepts in their own way, they can add to the learning system. So, you have a wiki-banking, wiki-maths, wiki-physics and so on. Naturally, I believe in the goodness of people and that they will not post useless or malicious content. In case they do, then there will be bots who will identify the garbage and throw it out.

I can also broadcast my query to all the members of the learning system and people would respond at their convenience. I would then find the best answer and add to the wiki so that others can benefit. People could also respond by posting audio/videos.

Is this idea possible to execute or just too impractical? Is there a real need for such a system? How can we create a huge community of subject matter experts on just about any subject from nuclear engineering to philosophy. It will obviously require a lot of storage and capability to deliver large amount of data in an efficient manner.

Any thoughts.?

Internationalization and Localization Where Social Network Stands?

I read Flickr (Yahoo photo sharing) has added 7 more languages and 55% of their user base (24 million) is international. Also, interesting to note Alexa India rating of Orkut (Rank 2), YouTube (Rank 7) and Blogger.com (Rank 10)

This is the current picture. However; I also hear a lot that there is a play for India centric social network though yet to be proved. For many industries food, retail localization of services and content is a critical success factor. First vegetarian Pizza Hut opened in Ahmedabad (to cater to the jain community). I am not sure if same business factor extends to Social Networks. These businesses seem to be geographical neutral or the inherent nature of business is such that users (& communities) define their own way.

Any views on localization for Social Networks - What are the parameters on which localization can happen. Otherwise entrepreneurs need to develop new ideas instead of replicating YouTube and Orkut. Matrimonial probably is one example of localization of dating sites. Any other ideas here?

-Mukul

Giving back to society - Can for-profit and not-for-profit coexist?

Every once in a while, the question about giving back to the society pops up in my mind and in my friend’s circle, but we end up dropping it and continuing to do what we have been doing: earn more money.

Howver, so many things have been happening around about me on this topic recently that I am inclined to believe this is a signal to do something now.
Sample this:
1. 2 weeks ago, we (friends from IITD) started talking about PM’s speech to CII and the fact that while we didn’t agree with such a socialist tone of the address, there is some merit to it that we should explore, and then the discussion went on to “what have we done so far for this, and what can we do?”.
2. 1 week back, someone forwarded me Harvard Commencement speech by Bill Gates, which posed the same question, and gave amazing insight into why people do not give so much to society and what can be done to change it.
3. Around the same time, I picked a book “Leaving Microsoft to Change the World” to read during my India trip and have been reading it since. This again talks about how a real zeal to do something for society triggers thousand others to join and support such a cause. In this case, it helped create “Room to Read”

The area that I think requires significant support is providing quality and pertinent education to children and adults alike. However, this is a huge task; according to a survey by govt of India, there are 19.4 crore children in age 6-13, out of which about 80% study in govt schools and 7% are not in any school. This requires substantial investment of money, technology and manpower.
Typically (as near as I can tell), non-profit organizations in India (as elesewhere) have been generating money from donations and grants. However, I feel that this is not a sustainable model for creating a big impact. Instead, I am thinking of models where non-profit company can be a shareholder in a for-profit organization that generates enough money to support this non-profit, and also exerting enough influence in the way the work is done so that the technology can be leveraged both ways. So for example, the for-profit org can create technologies to help teach students on web and apply it to give certificates to engineers (and earn money), and then turn around and license this technology to non-profit to help it use it in rural setup where resources are scarce.

I would like to hear your thoughts on the feasibility of such business models, conflict of interest issues, and other issues that you think will be pertinent when someone goes about doing this. If you are interested in the actual idea, do drop me a note and we can talk about in more detail.

Tim O’ Reilly on Web 2.0

I recently interviewed Tim O’ Reilly of O’ Reilly Media and O’ Reilly Radar about Web 2.0 and its implications. In this interview Tim points out that Web 2.0 uses the Internet as a platform to harnass the collective intelligence of the users. An interesting point that he made and that stuck with me was that most disruptive technologies might appear as toys initially and that it is important not to dismiss them. Think Twitter here.

Ajit Jaokar has an excellent post that highlights the essence of the conversation with Tim.