The genesis of this post is the forecasts on online media spend. I tend to agree that this may be slow to grow in India but I would want to know when it took off in USA and/or China and what triggered takeoff. I remain optimistic on advertising by persons and SME to get business. This may not be cost per impression or cost per click but more like cost per order.

I am also wary of the perils of forecasting as the anecdotes below illustrate.

Tom Watson the founder of IBM stated once in the early days of mainframe computers that he saw a world market of just five mainframe computers.

When PayPal launched in Dec 1999 the total online accounts at all financial services companies in the US were 250,000 ( the leader was Wingspan Bank). By Feb 15, 2000 PayPal alone had 250,000 accounts.

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