Interesting post around startup predictions for 2013 here. Somewhat US centric, and I thought I’d overlay my comments for India alongside.
1. Accelerators will slow down: India may see a lag in slowing down of accelerators, and this may not happen in 2013. We might in fact see more accelerators come up. However, I am already beginning to see angel investors getting shy. This crunch is developing as a result of angel investors experiencing the Series A contraction, and having to manage portfolios for longer than angels thought.
2. The Enterprise will strike back: The term “back” might not be relevant for India, as Indian enterprise segment awaits the first strike. However, by end of 2013, I believe that “global enterprise/saas startups from India” will start to show direction. These investments started last year and continued to build excitement through 2012 – 2013 is time to deliver.
3. The cash gap will fix the talent gap: Nope. Hopefully, incremental progress in startups’ ability to attract talent.
4. Venture capital will rebound: Largely, there hasn’t been a big drop, and venture capital should continue its somewhat stable trajectory in India. 2013-2014 is time for VCs to deliver returns. If they do, I would anticipate a spike in VC over next two years. If not, a drop. In any case, I would not expect that spike to show up within 2013.
5. Startup Ecosystems will go extinct: This comment has been made on ReadWrite in context of ex-Silicon Valley startup ecosystems. I hope (and feel confident) that Indian startup ecosystem will be an exception and will strengthen. Will Hyderabad, Pune, Chennai ecosystems come of age? Hard to bet on that.
6. Big data will crash: Another buzzword will take over. There are too many attractive applications of the underlying technology disruptions for this to go away. I see it more as the ride down the hype cycle. An interesting perspective here on big data’s second coming.
Apart from these, I am sure Indian ecosystem will have its own trends. For one, I am watching out for disruptions on mobility front, classified businesses should show a direction, couple of public market listings (if successful) may re-ignite the venture fever by 2013 end, and its always fun to see what the flavor of the year will be.
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Pranay – there is a lag effect on this. Over past 12 months, there has been contraction, and that may continue at steady state for next 12 months. This is leading to overhang of angel portfolios. The positive spike in VC is, in my mind, a function of what exits will get delivered over next 12 months.
If your reason for (1) is Series A contraction, doesn’t that conflict with (4)?
Good to see you blogging again, Alok – there is a great paucity of Indian VCs sharing their candid thoughts and perceptions for the local landscape (beyond the fig-leaf flag-waving!) and posts like this are great to see!
Curious about your quip around angel investors though – that they are getting shy – the popular wisdom is that it is now easier than ever before to raise seed/angel funds in India – has that horse bolted?