Loading ...In the US the point of inflexion with the internet was probably 1998/1999 and a lot of the big money was made in the 1998 - 2002 period. Prior to 1998 there were many attempts that were slow to take off.
China the inflexion point was probably later. Do not know too much about when Baidu, Sina, Shanda, Netease, Alibaba, TaoBao etc. got going
I am not sure whether we are approaching an inflexion point in India. Have we passed one or whether inflexion point thinking is relevant or not.
Where are the acquisitions? Other than Indiaworld-Sify, India has no stories of internal acquisitions in the Indian Internet space. In fact, even in the tech space the story has been subdued - Netkraft-Adea, Mphasis-Kshema etc. don’t somehow seem to impress.
Now things are changing in the general industry - with Tata-Corus, Mittal, Hindalco, Suzlon etc. going for big acquisitions overseas, the feeling seems to be that yes, we will pay more today but the resulting benefit years later will be great. If this goes into the tech industry and consolidation (at big ticket prices) becomes popular, we will really see an inflexion point in the Internet space.
IPOs are interesting - Naukri has done well. But no one else seems to have the drive to go public, despite what has been one of the most vibrant markets, and despite no SOX type strangulating regulation. Right now, though the time for IPOs may have passed.
Otherwise we just have to wait for a google or a big foreign company to acquire us - and honestly I don’t see that as an inflexion point. Valuations will be too low.
Want an one line answer…? When at least 15% of our population takes to internet for at least 50% of their daily needs ( education, leisure, healthcare, shopping, business etc.) , we’ll have our inflexion point.
Dive a little deep, my benchmarks for an inflexion point/era in Indian Internet space could be when -
a) even a kirana shopkeeper is as efficiently networked with his suppliers and customers as much as the back office of a large mall. Same quality, same price, customers get home delivery as well unlike from a shopping mall.
b) we show the world how to start “positive” internet epidemics of their own in new applications ( like how we try to ape Google, Amazon, Yahoo, Facebook etc.). The virtue of an epidemic, after all, is that just a little input is enough to get it started, and it can spread very, very quickly.
c) The ideas and local talent available tempt even Valley VCs ( the John Doerr, Paul Graham, Peter Rip types ) to open their de facto branches in India, JD, PG and PR choose to shift in with their bag and baggage.
A few internet startups made on shoestring budgets end up making hundreds of millions of dollars and we are not surprised.
Is that too much to ask ?
Sanjay would like to hear your definition for “Inflexion point”.There can be many definition based on
a)No. and size of IPOs,
b)Size and number of pure Internet active companies,
c)level of innovation in Indian start-up,
d)VC’s chase for Indian google,yahoo,ebay,
e) market size,
f)cutomer sophistication.
Now comming to your question “whether inflexion point thinking is relevant or not”.I will say its not relevent yet for internet in India is concern.Why? You can pick any of the measure mention above and you will find we do’nt much to mention and discuss about.
Krish’s banchmarks are quite optimistic .The quetion is how long it will take to reach that mark and what to do while we wait for it. I beleive that path to inflexion point will be evolutionary till be reach the threshold.
Satpal,
I have no precise definition. At one point in India there was dot com hype and disappointment. My question was really around is there hype building again and this time around will there be disappointment again or will a few big winners emerge. If out of the companies that get funded now by 2011 if say ten of them do good IPO’s we could say was 2006-2007 was an inflexion point for India.
Will/Shld happen in the coming 6-12 months…
@ Satpal,
When you classify my benchmarks as `optimistic’, it gives me a perspective of the levels of internet adoption in India.
My point is - No adoption, No growth.
*How long it will take to reach that mark* - depends on the compelling applications that are developed ( to drive demand ) coupled with progressive reduction in cost of system hardware ( incremental affordability, at least for the 15% of our population ).
*What to do while we wait for it* - Collaborate, Ideate and Execute !
@ Sanjay,
There sure is a build up of hype and so are casualties. But the failure rates are significantly low as many weaklings are filtered at due diligence stage. The difference in hype 2.0 that we notice is (a) revenue based valuation is the norm now instead of eyeball count (b) lower financing needs at both seed stage and series A and (c) significant reduction in startup costs owing to availability of advanced tools / SaaS apps etc.
To that extent, hopefully impact of failures will be less diabolic.
Hey Sanjay,
I read your post http://www.venturewoods.org/?p=273 and we’re trying out something similar at www.dreamzhunt.com and the first round of receving submissions are over.
Pls let me know a way to contact you. Looks very interesting to find a like-minded pal
Cheerzzz
Manoj